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Mildura: Victoria’s Food Bowl Centre
Mildura, a thriving regional city in northwestern Victoria, is nestled along the iconic Murray River and home to 56,972 residents (Census 2021). Renowned for its agricultural strength, it is a major producer of citrus fruits (especially oranges), table grapes, and premium wines. Beyond its rich farming heritage, Mildura is popular for its vibrant cultural scene, featuring art galleries, food festivals, and a strong Indigenous presence. With a stunning riverfront, a relaxed lifestyle, a dynamic local economy, affordable housing, and solid rental yields, Mildura stands out as a prime destination for homebuyers and investors.
After the COVID boom, Mildura’s house price growth slowed down but regained strength in late 2024. It achieved 8.3% growth over the last 12 months. Will this momentum continue to strengthen in the coming year? Join us today to explore the city’s current property market conditions and outlook!
As of January 2025, Mildura’s house market pressure is relatively high.
Among the six metrics InvestorKit uses to measure market performance, Mildura scores the highest (=5) in rental pressure, yield and affordability, 4 in price pressure and incoming supply and 2 in growth cycle.
Demographic & Economic Trends
From 2017 to 2021, Mildura’s population growth rate dropped, hitting -0.5% in 2021. The dramatic fall in 2021 was caused by a plummet in the number of overseas and internal migrants due to travel restrictions in Victoria.
Since then, population growth has recovered, fueled by economic recovery and the return of overseas migrants. However, Mildura’s population growth rate is still relatively low, at around 0.7% in the 2022-23 financial year, and its net internal migration is weak.
The improving population growth is expected to drive higher housing demand in the region in the coming years.
Mildura’s unemployment rate has risen after a short decline between March and June 2023. Despite the increase, it is still much lower than a decade ago and is now at a healthy level of 5.2%.
On the other hand, the number of job vacancies has fallen since late 2023. Nevertheless, it is still much higher (approximately 50%) than the pre-pandemic average.
Both indicators show Mildura’s job market and the local economy are healthy.
Sales Market Trends
Mildura’s house market has grown relatively high over the last 15 months. The current median house price is $455k, about 8.3% higher than a year ago.
From late 2024, the sale days on market have shown signs of declining. Currently, properties in Mildura spend a median of 28 days on the market before being sold. This trend suggests growing demand, indicating the potential for healthy price growth.
Since April 2024, Mildura’s number of for-sale house listings has experienced a solid downward trend while the sale volume has remained relatively stable. These trends contributed to a steady drop in inventory to a healthy level of 2.6 months of stock.
The declining inventory implies that market pressure in Mildura is improving, indicating further healthy growth ahead.
Mildura’s building approval rates have been below the balanced benchmark of 3% over the last decade and have declined gradually since 2022. Currently, the building approval rate is at a low level of 1.38%, indicating a low risk of oversupply in the housing market and is a good sign for continued value growth.
Mildura’s house price growth accelerated in 2021 and increased by 122% over the last ten years, higher than half the average of 50 top-populated regional cities and its long-term average. This significant 10-year growth implies Mildura could see reduced upside potential compared to other Victorian cities, such as Bendigo or Ballarat.
Rental Market Trends
Mildura’s rental market is under high pressure, with vacancy rate at a low level of around 0.6%. Rental prices have grown considerably by 15% over the last 12 months. We expect healthy growth to continue in the coming year due to the high rental market pressure.
Mildura enjoys a high rental yield of 5.5%, higher than the average of the top-populated cities. Since rental prices have grown faster than sale prices, yields have improved since late 2023.
Over the past decade, Mildura’s rental prices have grown by 64%, slightly lower than the average growth rate of the top-populated regional cities. We expect the gap to close further, considering the region’s increasing housing demand driven by the healthy economy and high rental market pressure.
In the next 6-12 months…
Mildura’s house market is currently under relatively high pressure, with healthy inventory and relatively low days on the market. Meanwhile, the rental market remains tight, with low vacancy rates. Over the next 6 to 12 months, we expect Mildura’s house prices to grow healthily, supported by its relatively high and increasing market pressure and high affordability. However, its impressive 10-year growth may limit its medium-term growth.
Mildura is the 12th regional city we examine in this Market Pressure Review Blog Series. Stay tuned for more cities to follow! InvestorKit is a data-driven buyers’ agency that chooses purchasing locations through a sophisticated market pressure analysis system. This methodology has enabled our clients to achieve growth higher than the average and expedite their investment journey. Interested in learning more about InvestorKit’s research and services? Talk to us today by clicking here and requesting your 15-min FREE discovery call!